Beyond Supply and Demand: The Real Labor Pains of the AI Revolution
The public conversation about AI and labor is stuck in a tedious loop. “AI will take our jobs,” declare the headlines, a statement of faith in technological determinism that serves as a conversation-stopper, not a starter. A more useful, if still imperfect, entry point begins with a simple economic model. It starts with an observation, such as Arvind Narayanan’s on radiology: AI has surpassed human performance on many discrete tasks, yet the number of human radiologists continues to grow. This suggests the dominant effect isn’t automation, but augmentation. My initial take was that this boils down to a classic supply and demand problem. One AI-augmented specialist can do the work of many, increasing supply. In fields with vast, unsaturated demand—think of the queues at hospitals or the perpetual backlogs in software development—this new capacity will simply be absorbed. Problem solved. ...